However, the Australian can take solace in the fact he will be coming up against the league's lowest-scoring attack this Saturday.Ĭounty have mustered just 20 goals in 26 games. Quite often, this can point to an inadequate goalkeeper, which seems to be the case at Tannadice, where Mark Birighitti added to a growing list of errors in Saturday's defeat to St Johnstone. It's a similar story for United, who are underperforming their xGA by almost six. The Ayrshire side have conceded the second most goals (46) in the division despite having a better xGA (34.8) than five other Premiership clubs.īased on that metric, this means McInnes' backline has conceded 11 more goals than they should have judging by the quality of chances created against them. However, the other end of the pitch is arguably a bigger issue. Kyle Vassell's red card at Easter Road on Saturday, which has since been appealed against, also adds to McInnes' headache. It's a different story for Kilmarnock, who have the lowest shot conversion rate (7.02%) out the bottom four despite having the most touches in the opposition box (510).Ī lack of striking options has been a problem for McInnes, who lost both Kyle Lafferty and Oli Shaw in the January transfer window. The Lanarkshire side are the highest scorers out the bottom four, with the 11 league goals talismanic striker Kevin van Veen has netted playing a crucial part in that. Their expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) figures plant them around mid-table. What do the stats say?ĭespite a cloud of uncertainty hanging over Fir Park, with a manager and chief executive yet to be appointed, Motherwell's underlying numbers look positive and have them moving in the right direction. Of course, form can fluctuate and post-split fixtures can nudge those points-per-game averages up, but considering the bottom two have only won five games each so far, expecting four or more from their final 12 games seems a stretch at present. The same applies for United, who currently lie at the foot of the table. In their last 12 league fixtures, Derek McInnes' side have managed a tally of 11.Ĭounty would therefore have to beat the Ayrshire side's projected total of 34, meaning four wins between now and the end of the season might not be enough. After back-to-back victories in the space of five days against St Mirren and Hearts under interim boss Stuart Kettlewell, that certainly doesn't look beyond them.Īnother nine points would be required for Kilmarnock in their final 12 games. Since the SPFL play-offs were reintroduced in 2013-14, no more than 37 points have been required to guarantee survival.Īs it stands, this season's magic number looks set to be lower than that figure, with 11th-placed County projected to reach a tally of no more than 31 - so what does that mean for the current bottom four?įor Motherwell, it would mean just two more wins are required. With such a key day of action looming, BBC Scotland crunches the numbers behind the fight to avoid the drop. Meanwhile, the bottom two - Ross County and Dundee United - go at it in Dingwall. Ninth-placed Motherwell travel to Ayrshire to face a Kilmarnock side a place and three points below them.
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